Third of Kazakhstan citizens waits for changes during the post-elective period and considers it is more important than the existing stability

DEMOSCOPE bureau of express monitoring of public opinion conducted a poll on the theme “President of Kazakhstan Election 2019”.

1100 people from 14 areas and the cities of republican value (Nur-Sultan, Almaty, Shymkent) were polled from July 5 to July 8 in total. The poll was conducted by phone calls on stationary numbers. The territorial stratified quota selection of respondents was used. The controlled parameters were settlement type (city or village), gender and age of respondents. The procedure of reweighing data on ethnic belonging of the respondents was carried out.

The subscriber base of stationary telephone numbers across Kazakhstan formed a basis for selection. The base of phone numbers from each region or the city from which number for a call was in a random way selected was loaded. In total more than 72 thousand numbers were loaded into the base. Following the results of 176 settlements about the country are captured. The poll was conducted in the Kazakh and Russian languages. The selection represents adult population of the Republic of Kazakhstan (over 18 years old).

Early presidential election caused great public outcry. According to official data Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev who collected more than 70% of votes won in the election. The voters who disagreed with results protested and demanded to recognize the results of election as illegitimate. The Demoscope bureau found out Kazakhstan citizens’ expectations after election.

The results of a research showed that most of Kazakhstan citizens watch political events. 49% of respondents are interested in policy from time to time, and nearly a third of respondents have interest constantly. Only the fifth part of the population does not inquire in the events in the country.

While the research the participants of poll divided into two groups.

Group One – 67% of respondents who answered that they participated in the election of the president of the country.

They were offered to answer the following questions:

WHICH CANDIDATE DID YOU VOTE FOR?

59.5% told that they voted for Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev whereas 25% refused to answer the question.

13% of participants of the poll voted for Amirzhan Kossanov, and 1% of respondents supported the first female candidate, Daniya Yespayeva.

Analyzing data of the poll in a section of ethnic origin, it is visible that 18% of Kazakhs, Russians of 2% and only 1% of representatives of other ethnic groups voted mainly for Kossanov. Whereas the representatives of other ethnic groups – 74%, Russians – 72% and Kazakhs – 54% voted much more often for Tokayev. Such support of the current president is possibly caused by his pre-election rhetoric where he chose to continue the course of Elbasy’s policy, in particular in an interethnic consent issue.

  What is your nationality? Total
Kazakh Russian Others
WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR? Zhambyl Akhmetbekov 0%     0%
Daniya Yespayeva 1% 2%   1%
Amirzhan Kossanov 18% 2% 1% 13%
Toleutai Rakhimbekov     1% 0%
Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev 54% 72% 74% 59%
Voted against all, spoilt the ballot intentionally 1% 2% 1% 1%
Refuse to answer 26% 23% 22% 25%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Pic 1 © demos.kz/old

The participants of the poll were offered to answer a question of their motives of participation in elections.

The most part of Kazakhstan citizens (62%) went to elections as they consider it the civic duty. A quarter of respondents participated in the election purposefully to support “their” candidate. It is indicative that almost equal number of respondents motivated participation in elections with an absolutely different position: “I participated just not to let anyone else use my vote ” – 4%; “I was asked at work/educational institution ” – 3%.

Group Two – a third of the interviewed citizens who did not go to elections.

Nearly a half of them could not vote because of personal reasons (were away, there was no time, etc.). 13% do not see sense to take part in elections, considering that their vote do not change the picture. 4% of voters could not find their names in the lists and the same number did not go to the elections essentially.

64% of respondents definitely or mostly trust the results of the election. 28% of citizens have the opposite point of view: 17% do not trust at all and 11% of Kazakhstan citizens hardly trust the results. More women trust the results of elections than men – 68% against 60%, respectively.

 

Gender of respondent

Total

male

female

DO YOU TRUST TO OFFICIAL RESULTS OF THE KAZAKHSTAN PRESIDENT ELECTION? Definetely yes

40%

44%

42%

Mostly yes

20%

24%

22%

Mostly no

12%

10%

11%

Definitely no

20%

14%

17%

Hard to say

9%

7%

8%

Total

100%

100%

100%

Pic 2 © demos.kz/old

  Gender of respondent Total
male female
WHICH OF STATEMENTS ABOUT THE ELECTION ON 9 JUNE DO YOU AGREE WITH? The election was fair and with no serious abuses 48% 52% 50%
It was unfair election with lots of abuses 29% 25% 27%
Hard to say 23% 23% 23%
Total 100% 100% 100%
         
         
  Gender of respondent Total
male female
HOW DO YOU THINK THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY WILL CHANGE AFTER KASYM-ZHOMART TOKAYEV ASSUMES THE PRESIDENT’S POST? Will improve 47% 59% 53%
Will get worse 4% 2% 3%
Won’t change 32% 25% 28%
Hard to say 17% 14% 16%
Total 100% 100% 100%

Pic 3 © demos.kz/old

A half of Kazakhstan citizens in general trust electoral process and consider that presidential elections took place honestly and without serious abuses. Nearly a third of the interviewed citizens oppose them noting that the election was dishonest, with mass abuses.

Nevertheless, more than a half of respondents (53%) believes that the situation in the country after Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev assumes the president’s post will improve. According to nearly a third of respondents (28%) the situation will not change. And only 3% are skeptic, expecting deterioration.

The poll showed that stability in the country is more important for most of Kazakhstanis (58%). A third of respondents (33%) expect changes from the authorities considering them more essential.

In a section of age categories, it is possible to observe the most expressed protest mood among the interviewed young people (18-24 years). They want changes more than the others (48%). At the same time one of the senior age groups (from 55 to 64 years) would like stability more (67%).

How old are you? Total
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
WHAT DO YOU THINK IS MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE COUNTRY NOW – STABILITY OR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES? Stability 46% 52% 58% 69% 67% 69% 58%
Changes 48% 40% 34% 21% 23% 20% 33%
Hard to say 6% 8% 8% 10% 11% 11% 8%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Pic 4 © demos.kz/old

The methodology and tools of the survey were developed by Serik Beysembayev, sociologist.

Telephone survey was conducted by KT Cloud Lab LLP Contact Center.

_______________________________________________________________________

The hyperlink must be added when using the materials.

According to Paragraph 9 Article 28 of the Constitutional Law mass media are obliged to specify the organization which conducted the survey, a person who ordered the poll and paid for it, time of holding the poll, a method of collecting the information, number of respondents and error index of the poll results when publishing the results of poll.

The project is implemented by MediaNet International Centre for Journalism with assistance of Konrad Adenauer Foundation Office in Nur-Sultan.

Data of the poll reflect the respondents’ point of view only. Poll data array in the Excel format can be provided if requested.

Contact us for additional information: 7 (727) 2922046.

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