61.4% of citizens believe that higher taxes will negatively affect their quality of life.
From November 4 to 13, 2025, DEMOSCOPE Public Opinion Express Monitoring Bureau conducted a survey on the topic “Perception of Tax Reform in Kazakhstan.” The project is implemented by MediaNet International Center for Journalism in cooperation with the PAPERLAB Research Monitoring and with the support of Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
On January 1, 2026, Kazakhstan will introduce a new Tax Code, which, among other changes, increases the VAT rate for small and medium-sized businesses from 12% to 16%. The DEMOSCOPE survey results show that the public largely views this tax reform with skepticism.
The majority of respondents (a total of 61.4%) believe that higher taxes will negatively impact their quality of life. Of these, 32.4% are convinced that the tax increase will significantly worsen their standard of living, while 29% expect a slight decline. Meanwhile, 20.6% believe the tax increase will not affect their lifestyle at all, and 9% think that raising VAT will improve their quality of life to a significant or moderate extent.
The government explains the VAT hike as necessary to boost budget revenues in order to stabilize the economy and cover social expenditures. However, the survey data indicate that most citizens do not share this vision.
On the contrary, respondents believe that as a result of the VAT increase:
- Prices for goods and services will rise (65.5%)
- The number of small and medium-sized enterprises will decline (27.3%)
- Unemployment will increase (26.5%)
- The shadow economy and tax evasion will intensify (19.6%)
At the same time, some respondents noted potential positive effects. In their view, tax revenues to the state budget will increase (18.2%), and living standards will improve (9.4%). Another 12.6% believe the reform will not lead to any changes. Respondents could select up to three options for this question.
One of the most frequently criticized potential consequences of the tax reform is the deterioration of conditions for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In the survey, respondents were asked to assess how the VAT increase would affect the business sector. The majority (63.6%) believe the impact will be negative, 14.8% think it will have no effect, and 10.3% expect a positive outcome.
Negative expectations regarding the impact on SMEs correlate with the overall assessment of the tax reform. More than half of Kazakhstanis (52.8%) expressed a negative attitude toward the very idea of raising VAT, 33.4% reported being indifferent, and only 7.8% viewed the increase positively.
The opinion of SME representatives themselves plays a particularly important role in evaluating fiscal reform. Among entrepreneurs and business owners who took part in the survey, 70.5% expressed a negative attitude toward the upcoming changes, indicating a high level of concern about the consequences of the tax reforms.
According to the study, most citizens believe that the greatest beneficiaries of the VAT increase will be the government (63.8%) and wealthy segments of the population (27.9%).
At the same time, according to respondents, the groups least likely to benefit from the reform are businesses (10.2%), the middle class (3.3%), and low-income citizens (2%). One in five (19.2%) is convinced that no one will benefit from the reform, while 2.4% believe that everyone will.
An equally important indicator is the level of public trust in the government regarding the effective use of potential additional tax revenues generated by the VAT increase. A total of 55% expressed distrust toward the government: 41.6% do not trust it, and 14.6% rather do not trust it. Meanwhile, 32.5% expressed trust: 22.5% rather trust the government, and 12.7% fully trust it.
Another important indicator of the ongoing reform is the level of public awareness. The survey showed that half of Kazakhstanis (47.5%) are hearing about the new Tax Code of Kazakhstan for the first time, even though experts note that it will affect all citizens. Meanwhile, one-third (34.9%) have heard something about the new Tax Code but do not know the details, and 17% are very well informed about it.
Notably, awareness levels among entrepreneurs and business owners who participated in the survey were significantly higher – 69.6% in total.
The DEMOSCOPE findings show that society largely perceives the tax reform with skepticism, indicating that it will put pressure on a strategically important sector of the economy – entrepreneurs and business owners. Kazakhstanis view the reform as a mechanism that will primarily benefit the government and wealthier citizens, while negatively affecting vulnerable groups and the business community.
Low awareness of the upcoming tax changes, combined with the majority’s belief that these changes will inevitably lead to a decline in living standards, reflects a broader skepticism toward government initiatives and highlights the lack of effective government communication with the public.
Detailed survey results are available on the project website. The press release and infographics in Kazakh and Russian are accessible via the link. When using this material, a hyperlink to the DEMOSCOPE website is required.
Methodology:
From November 4 to 13, 2025, a total of 1,100 people were surveyed across 17 regions and cities of national significance (Astana, Almaty, Shymkent). The survey was conducted through telephone interviews with mobile subscribers in Kazakhstan. The sampling frame was based on phone numbers generated randomly using a random number generator. The telephone survey was carried out by the contact center of KT CloudLab LLP.
Participants included 47.4% men and 52.6% women aged 18 and older. A total of 66% preferred to respond in Kazakh, and 34% in Russian. Among respondents, 77.9% identified as Kazakh, 10.2% as Russian, and 11.5% as members of other ethnic groups.
Overall, 68.9% of respondents live in urban areas, while 30.7% reside in rural areas. The data were weighted by gender and age. The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 3%. The response rate was 9.6%.
The survey was implemented by MediaNet International Center for Journalism Public Foundation with the support of Konrad Adenauer Foundation. The survey results reflect the views of respondents.
For additional information, please contact the project coordinator, Snezhana Tsoy: snezhana.tsoy@medianet.ngo