66.9% of people in Kazakhstan believe in the readiness of the armed forces to repel military aggression, but hazing and corruption remain causes for concern.
From August 28 to September 10, 2025, the DEMOSCOPE Bureau of Express Public Opinion Monitoring conducted a survey on the topic “Public Perception of Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces”. The project is implemented by MediaNet International Centre for Journalism in cooperation with the PAPERLAB Research Centre and with the support of Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
According to the Global Firepower Military Strength Ranking, Kazakhstan’s armed forces rank 57th out of 145 countries, holding a leading position in Central Asia. Uzbekistan’s army ranks 58th, Turkmenistan 77th, Kyrgyzstan 105th, and Tajikistan 108th.
DEMOSCOPE sought to find out how Kazakhstanis assess the combat readiness of their national armed forces. The survey showed that the majority of respondents (66.9%) believe the army is capable of defending the country. Among them, almost one-third (31.9%) are fully convinced of this, while slightly more than one-third (35%) consider it highly likely. At the same time, a total of 26.2% doubt that the national armed forces are prepared to repel military aggression: 15.8% believe the army is more likely unable to do so, while 10.4% are certain it cannot defend the country from an attack.
Survey participants also identified the most pressing problems of Kazakhstan’s army:
- High levels of hazing and violence (37.8%),
- High levels of corruption (34.9%),
- Outdated material and technical base (30.9%).
It is evident that hazing may be the key factor influencing the willingness and readiness of Kazakhstanis to perform military service.
During the survey, citizens were asked how they would react if a close relative (brother or son) received a draft notice to serve in the Kazakhstani army. Notably, nearly one-third of respondents (35.9%) expressed concern for their relative: 25.8% said they would support him but be deeply worried; 7.1% indicated they would seek a legal way to avoid service; and 3% admitted they would help find other means to prevent their relative from joining the army. Meanwhile, 40% reacted positively, stating they would fully support their relative’s service. Another 23.5% said they would not interfere, since it is solely the relative’s decision.
The views of young Kazakhstanis are particularly telling in assessing the armed forces. The study showed that the position of respondents aged 18-29 differs from the sample average. Among young respondents, the share of those who would unconditionally support a relative’s service is the lowest – 32.4% compared to 41.3% on average.
In addition, nearly half of young people (44.7%) favor a complete transition to a professional contract-based army (compared to the overall average of 36.7%). Young respondents also show greater concern about high levels of hazing and violence in the army: 40.6% versus 33.6% overall.
Despite these problems, 61.7% of respondents expressed trust in Kazakhstan’s armed forces, while 13% reported distrust. Another 22.3% expressed a neutral attitude.
Against the backdrop of the complex global geopolitical situation, respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of military conflicts involving Kazakhstan in the next five years. In total, 14% considered such a scenario possible: 7.1% view a military conflict as highly likely, while 6.9% consider it somewhat likely. At the same time, 42.9% reject this possibility – 29.7% are convinced the likelihood of conflict is extremely low, and 13.2% see it as rather low. Another 28% of respondents assessed the probability as moderate.
The DEMOSCOPE survey also explored which countries, in the opinion of citizens, Kazakhstan should prioritize in strengthening military ties (respondents could select up to two options). 29.3% preferred cooperation with Russia and the CSTO, while 27.5% favored countries of NATO (such as the United States and Turkey).
At the same time, 22.6% supported military cooperation with China within the framework of the SCO, and 20% considered it necessary to enhance engagement with Central Asian countries. The remaining 18.4% believe Kazakhstan should maintain neutrality and limit military alliances as much as possible.
An important factor influencing the assessment of Kazakhstan’s army is the current status of the military profession. The majority of respondents (a total of 69.9%) consider military service prestigious, while 23% view it as lacking prestige.
Today, Kazakhstan has a mixed system of military recruitment: compulsory service and contract service. Survey participants were asked to identify what they consider the most effective model. 36.6% supported a full transition to contract service, 36.5% favored universal conscription, and 17% believed the current combined system should be maintained.
The DEMOSCOPE study revealed a certain public dissonance in the perception of Kazakhstan’s army. While there is a relatively high level of trust and confidence in the defense capability of the national armed forces, internal problems remain evident – hazing, corruption, and insufficient material and technical support – which are most acutely felt by Kazakhstani society.
Detailed survey results are available on the project website. The press releases and infographics in Kazakh and Russian can be found at the link provided. When using this material, a hyperlink to the DEMOSCOPE website is mandatory.
___________________________________________________________________
Methodology: From August 28 to September 10, 2025, 1,100 people were surveyed across 17 regions and cities of national significance (Astana, Almaty, Shymkent). The survey was conducted through telephone interviews with mobile subscribers in Kazakhstan. The sampling frame was based on phone numbers generated using a random number generator. The telephone survey was carried out by the CloudLab LLP Contact Center.
Among respondents, 47.5% were men and 52.5% were women aged 18 and older. 64.2% preferred to answer in Kazakh, while 35.8% chose Russian. By ethnicity, 79.6% identified as Kazakh, 9.9% as Russian, and 9.9% as representatives of other nationalities. 65.7% of respondents live in urban areas, and 33.8% in rural areas.
The data were weighted by gender and age of respondents. With a 95% confidence level, the maximum margin of error does not exceed 3%. The survey response rate was 19.1%.
The survey was conducted by MediaNet International Centre for Journalism Public Foundation with the support of Konrad Adenauer Foundation. The survey data reflect the views of respondents.
For more please contact coordinator Snezhana Tsoy: snezhana.tsoy@medianet.ngo