From January 27 to February 5, 2025, the DEMOSCOPE Public Opinion Express Monitoring Bureau conducted a survey on What People Think of the War in Ukraine. The project is implemented by MediaNet International Center for Journalism in collaboration with the PAPERLAB Research Center, with the support of Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
On the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine, DEMOSCOPE conducted another public opinion study. Data from surveys conducted in 2022, 2023, and 2025 using a unified methodology allow for tracking changes in how Kazakhstanis perceive the conflict.
Nearly One-Third of Kazakhstanis Justify the War
Survey results indicate that Russian propaganda narratives continue to influence public opinion in Kazakhstan—nearly a third of citizens (27.8%) perceive the war through the lens of the most common Kremlin narratives:
- 10.7% believe that Russia is conducting a “special military operation” against Nazis in Ukraine.
- 17.1% are convinced that Russia is fighting Western countries and NATO on Ukrainian territory.
In 2022, 33.2% of respondents supported the Kremlin’s narrative, and in 2023, 31.8%. The stability of these figures highlights the vulnerability of Kazakhstan’s information space, where Russian, including propagandistic, content remains actively present and continues to influence a specific segment of the audience.
At the same time, the opposing view of the war has remained relatively stable over the three surveys. In 2025, nearly a quarter of respondents (24%) stated that Russia is waging war against Ukraine with the goal of occupation and annexation (22.1% in 2022 and 28.4% in 2023). Meanwhile, almost half of the respondents (48.2%) found it difficult to answer this question.
Another important indicator reflecting the audience’s attitude toward the war is the level of support for the warring sides.
The results of three studies demonstrate a consistently neutral position among the audience on this issue. In 2025, 55.5%of respondents held this view, compared to 59.1% in 2022 and 59.8% in 2023.
In 2025, one-fifth of Kazakhstanis (20%) expressed support for Ukraine, while 15% of respondents sided with Russia.
Polarization in attitudes toward the war is evident across different age groups. Support for Russia is strongest among those aged 60 and older (37.7%), which is more than twice the level found among respondents aged 50-59 (17.3%) and more than five times higher than among those aged 30-39 (7.1%).
In contrast, support for Ukraine is more evenly distributed across all age groups, ranging from 15.4% to 28.9%.
Declining Interest in the War
It is worth noting that public attention to the war is gradually decreasing, although it remains high. In 2025, 42% of respondents continue to follow developments on the front lines, with 11.8% monitoring the situation daily and 30.2%checking in from time to time. By comparison, 53% followed the news in 2023, and 62.6% in 2022. This decline in interest may be attributed to audience fatigue, as well as a shift in focus toward domestic economic and political issues.
The survey revealed that the preferred source of information about the war is social media (55.8%). Other sources include Kazakhstani media (19.9%), acquaintances and relatives (13.6%), and Russian media (9.3%). Ukrainian media (2.9%) and media from other countries (2.4%) are the least popular sources.
Regarding expectations for the war’s outcome, the majority of respondents anticipate a peaceful resolution—57.4% believe that the parties will reach a compromise with the mediation of other countries. Meanwhile, 11.8% expect Russia to emerge victorious, while 4.7% believe Ukraine will win.
Divided Opinions on Russian Aggression
Since 2022, DEMOSCOPE has recorded a significant level of public concern regarding Russia. In 2025, 25.8% of Kazakhstanis consider a potential Russian attack on Kazakhstan possible. Among them, 8.8% view such a scenario as entirely likely, while 17% consider military aggression possible under certain conditions. At the same time, 58% believe an attack is impossible, and 16.2% were unsure.
Respondents were also asked whether their attitudes toward the warring parties had changed since the war began. 14.6%of Kazakhstanis reported an improved view of Ukraine, while 4.3% said the same about Russia. Conversely, 28.8% said their attitude toward Russia had worsened, while 14.6% reported a decline in their perception of Ukraine. More than half of respondents (54.1% regarding Russia and 57.7% regarding Ukraine) said their views had remained unchanged.
The survey also showed that more than a third of respondents (35.1%) believe the war has had a negative impact on Kazakhstan’s economy. Only 5% noted positive changes, while 41.3% saw no connection between the war and the country’s worsening economic situation.
Conclusion
Public opinion is a crucial indicator and tool that influences government decision-making. DEMOSCOPE’s research confirms that a significant portion of Kazakhstanis remains susceptible to Russian propaganda when assessing the motives and nature of the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s official media largely avoid covering the war, effectively ceding control over the domestic information agenda to Russian media.
Amid growing geopolitical instability, this approach poses risks of societal polarization and rising xenophobia. Addressing these challenges requires a reassessment of state information security policies, as well as the systematic implementation of media literacy initiatives and efforts to counter disinformation.
Note: In some questions, respondents were allowed to select multiple answers. Detailed survey results are available on the project’s website. The press release and infographics in Kazakh, Russian, and English can be accessed via the provided link. When using this material, a hyperlink to the DEMOSCOPE website is mandatory.
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Methodology: Between January 27 and February 5, 2025, a total of 1,100 respondents were surveyed across 17 regions and the cities of Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent. The survey was conducted through telephone interviews with mobile subscribers in Kazakhstan. The sample was based on a randomly generated database of phone numbers. The telephone survey was carried out by the CloudLab Contact Center. Among the respondents, 47.4% were men and 52.6% were women, all aged 18 and older. 41.6% of respondents preferred to answer in Kazakh, while 58.4% responded in Russian. The ethnic composition of the sample included 66.2% Kazakhs, 17.8% Russians, and 14.9% representatives of other nationalities. 71.3% of respondents reside in urban areas, while 28.3% live in rural areas. The data was weighted according to parameters such as gender and age. The maximum margin of error does not exceed 3% with a 95% confidence level. The response rate for the survey was 6.4%. The survey was conducted by MediaNet International Center for Journalism with the support of Konrad Adenauer Foundation. The results reflect the views of the respondents. For additional information, please contact coordinator Snezhana Tsoy at snezhana.tsoy@medianet.ngo.